What do Americans think of the imminent Israeli annexation and Trump’s Middle East plan

Israel’s annexation of occupied West Bank territory is now imminent, and UN Secretary General António Guterres said the move would be "the most serious violation of international law." In fact, President Trump’s so-called Israeli-Palestinian peace plan made such a move. The Trump administration plan also claims to provide a Palestinian "state", but the proposed entity is almost not like the country we know: Palestinians will rule about 70% of the occupied territories of the scattered parts connected by the channel, there is no Control over security, borders, aviation, territorial waters or alliances with countries. After reviewing Trump's proposal, 50 former European leaders called it similar to apartheid. Not surprisingly, the Palestinians quickly rejected it. Then, this opened the way for Trump to support all aspects of Israel's unilateral implementation of the plan (including annexation) as early as July.

What do Americans think of this proposal and Israel’s possible annexation of West Bank territory?

To find out, we asked a series of questions through the University of Maryland Key Questions Survey. The survey was conducted by Nielsen Scarborough from March 10 to 20 in a nationally representative sample survey of 2,395 American adults.

It’s worth noting that only 8% of the respondents were at least “somewhat familiar” with the plan, including 14% of Republicans who said that the content provided by the plan to the Palestinians constitutes a “state when providing an offer description. ". Instead, many interviewees, including most Democrats and independents, described "occupation."


The poll first asked respondents: “In early February, the Trump administration released a plan for the Middle East policy to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. How familiar are you with this plan?” Not surprisingly, 34% Of people said they were “unfamiliar” and another 36% said they were “unfamiliar”. 4% said they were “very familiar” with the plan, while 25% said they were “somewhat familiar”.

The following are the main conclusions based on the opinions of the interviewees, who think they are “very familiar” or

First, without any information about the plan, at least “a little” familiar with the plan Of respondents’ overall impression is unfavorable rather than favorable, and they think the plan is “too good for Israel” rather than for the Palestinians. As with almost every issue in the current American political environment, there are also obvious differences between the parties.

All Democrats (71%) and independents (53%) have “unfavorable” views on the plan, compared with only 12% of Republicans. More than half of Republicans expressed "agree" opinions (54%), while only 5% of Democrats responded. Overall, there are fewer Americans who think the plan is "favorable" compared to other options (29%)-42% said the plan was "unfavorable" and 22% said the plan was "neither beneficial nor unfavorable." 7% said they were “unsatisfied”

Only 10% said the plan was “too good for the Palestinians”, and there was little change in partisanship: 8% Republicans, 9% Independents and 11% Democrats. In contrast, 42% said it was "too good" for Israel, including 72% of Democrats, 46% of independents and 12% of Republicans. At the same time, 40% said it was "appropriately balanced", including 71% Republicans, 29% independents and 10% Democrats.

Secondly, we briefed the interviewees on the entity Trump’s plan was provided to the Palestinians, and then provided them with options to describe it:

Trump’s plan envisaged Palestinian control 70% of the West Bank and Gaza Strip occupied in the 1967 war, as well as some territorial exchanges. According to the plan, the Palestinian territories will be scattered, but connected through the passage, the Palestinians will not be able to control the territory’s water, air, security, borders, and have no right to form alliances with other countries. In your opinion, how do you call an entity with these characteristics?

Random options are provided for respondents: "One State", "Occupied Territories", "Autonomous Regions", "One State but Not Equal" and "Tang"

Only 8% of respondents would claim The entity Trump provided to the Palestinians was "one country", which included 3% of Democrats and independents, and 14% of Republicans.

 The graph shows voting data. Most Democrats and independents consider the entity to be “occupied territory” (both 53%), while multiple Republicans say “don’t know” ( 34%). About Americans' views on President Trump's Middle East peace plan.

Third, we raised a series of questions about the proposed Israeli annexation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. This issue highlights partisan differences: the vast majority of Democrats (79%) opposed the proposed settlement settlement, and more than half (56%) of Republicans supported this, which was strongly supported by evangelical Republicans (64%) stand by. [19659003]  The graph shows poll data about Americans’ views on President Trump’s Middle East peace plan.

It is worth noting that before the bottom line of annexation, a series of questions were raised that discussed the following principles: Which interviewees supported or opposed mergers. Two arguments were proposed against annexation: one based on international law and one based on Palestinian rights. Two arguments for annexation were proposed: one based on field reality and one based on the Bible. After testing the support of each argument separately, we asked respondents which one was closer to their point of view.

 The figure shows poll data about Americans, dividing respondents in the middle along the party line, most Democrats cite international law, many Republicans cite biblical claims, and the independents are even more Inclined to the Democratic Party's position.

Finally, we repeat the question we have been asking for many years, that is, the question of Jews and democracy in Israel. This is a question that all interviewees have asked, not only those that are at least to some extent. Familiar with Trump’s plan: “If you can’t choose a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?” As in previous polls, nearly two-thirds (63%) Say: "I support Israeli democracy more than Jewish democracy. I support a single democratic state where Arabs and Jews are equal, even if this means that Israel will no longer be a political Jewish state." This includes 81% of Democrats And 70% of independents. Republicans split, and many people (49%) said: "I support Israeli Jews more than Israeli democracy. I support Israeli Jews to continue to dominate the government, even if it means that Palestinians will not have citizenship and Full rights." However, it is worth noting that non-evangelical Republicans place greater emphasis on democracy than Jews by 10 percentage points (51% vs. 41%).

What elections might mean

There is no doubt that the American public has not followed Trump’s plan for the Middle East closely, with 70% of respondents saying they are “unfamiliar” or “not very familiar” with the plan. This also applies to evangelical Christians who are more inclined to support Israeli annexation than other Americans. As one evangelical leader put it, the Israeli annexation issue “resonates with most evangelicals in different situations”, but given the other issues that dominate the national dialogue, there is little “engagement” of any “interest” Or pay attention to the American evangelicals at the grassroots level. "The grassroots evangelicals have not pushed Trump to make a decision on this issue, and they are unlikely to support Trump's re-election based on what he did.

Statements about the upcoming 2020 election The same can be said. Considering all the other things Americans are facing now, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot play a major role. The main story is found in the attitude of the Democrats. Strong opposition to annexation, and the general belief that Trump’s plan is right Israel is too favorable, which adds to other recent findings that indicate a transformation is taking place. Israel’s annexation of West Bank territories can consolidate this transformation. For example, in an October poll, we found 66% of Democrats Support sanctions on Israeli settlements or take stronger measures. In a March poll, we found that 81% of Democrats said that questioning US-Israeli relations is “acceptable” or even a member of Congress “ Responsibilities." The recent Democratic primary election may point to the consequences: in the 16th District of New York, progressive candidate Jamaal Bowman has apparently lost Elliot Engel, a long-time member of Congress ), the latter has always been one of Israel’s most reliable supporters in Congress. One remarkable thing about that game is that Bowman published Engel’s support for Israel and his support for Israel. The lack of support for Palestinian rights. Public opinion polls suggest that annexation may further inspire democratic critics of Israel.

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