Trump's foreign policy uncertainty theory

Donald Trump’s foreign policy is an issue that continues to cause controversy and scrutiny. This interest comes from the fact that the actions of the Trump administration have led to major changes in the field of international relations and the foreign policy of the United States. The purpose of this article is to determine the defining characteristics of Trump's foreign policy and to assess its loyalty to traditional and modern foreign policy schools. The analysis brings the essence of American descendants face to face with the assumptions of American exceptionalism and the post-American world. It also examined the "Trumpism" ("Quran") that Trump himself called "new" foreign policy. Therefore, this article reflects the extent to which Trump has established a new school of American foreign policy.

The main foreign policy doctrines and schools

The presidential doctrine is a constant practice of a particular political ideology and can be defined as

a set of systems that exhibit recurring ideas, beliefs, values, and opinions, they There has been intentional and unintentional competition in providing action plans for public policy development in an attempt to prove, explain, argue or change the social and political arrangements and processes of the political community (International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences).

Historically, four major schools have met these characteristics and requirements. These schools are the focus of the special providence of the political historian Walter Russell Mead . First, he identified Hamilton School as a realist and interventionist. This describes the economic and hegemonic belief system once owned by Alexander Hamilton to ensure the status of American superpowers. Therefore, the main goal of the government is to establish an order of global trade and economic relations with other countries, because "tariffs and trade policies have always been used to influence the political taxation of national economic interests" (Measure 110). Because Hamiltonians are driven by interests, avoiding wars, maintaining good relations with trading partners, and maintaining a profitable world economic system are the foundations of Hamiltonian thought.

Second, Mead studied idealists and globalists led by 28 people. The President of the United States during the period of global turbulence after the First World War. The main agenda of the Wilsonist school is humanitarianism and multilateralism. It is committed to the peaceful spread and prevention of war. Driven by a belief in the moral obligation to promote its unique democratic values ​​in the world, the Wilsonians put American exceptionalism into practice. The mission of the United States is to protect other countries from evil by promoting democracy. The main interest in establishing a world order is that “the order must also be based on the principles of democratic government and the protection of human rights” (Measure 139). Therefore, Wilsonist schools are universal, due to the need to spread human rights in an economically prosperous world.

Unlike the aforementioned schools, the remaining two are not universal, but are aimed at the United States. First, Jeffersonian schools are schools of idealism and isolationism. It advocates the "American First" strategy, focusing on domestic welfare and minimizing diplomatic relations. In other words, the United States should protect a safe space away from a difficult world. Jeffersonians have always believed in the superior values ​​of the United States. They have long believed that the United States has principles of justice. However, following the isolationist agenda can better preserve their value, rather than spreading its value to the world. Nonetheless, the existence of serious threats can justify the need to intervene abroad.

Last but not least, Mead turned his focus to the Jacksonian School of Realists and Isolators. It is the most obstructed faction in

schools, the least likely to support the Wilsonism initiative to build a better world, and the least Jeffersonian people need patient diplomacy in difficult situations, or the least willing to accept Hamiltonism Trade strategy. "( WR Mead 225).

It condemned this outward-looking strategy, because when they were supposed to benefit the American people first, they would waste American initiatives, strength, and wealth in other countries. Unless there is a serious threat. The Jacksonians were reluctant to participate in the war. However, they decided in their own terms on the way to end the war, that is, by surrendering the enemy completely.

Testing Trump’s foreign policy doctrine

despite experts Still struggling to understand on what basis and under what circumstances Trump established his views, his way of thinking is usually marked as Trump (Tanenhaus and Sargent). Trumpism implies Ambiguous and uncertain, there is no uniform or standard definition. In fact, unlike most previous presidents, Trump is a president with no political or military experience. His close connection with the world of money and the media Understanding has a clear impact. The president’s worldview is transaction and business-oriented (Stephens). In fact, Trump does not support a complex worldview. As Stephens said, Trump’s “American The priority "Agenda" draws on the instincts of populism and isolationism, because it is based on his abandonment of globalization and his adherence to nationalism.

Whether Trump’s attitude toward foreign policy is isolationism or internationalism still There is controversy. Trump announced in his foreign policy speech during the presidential election that his intended foreign policy will replace "target-oriented randomness, strategy-oriented ideology, and peace-centric chaos." "His attitude toward foreign policy is "America first." For Trump, to make the United States second to none on the global stage is to get it out of the post-Cold War "failure" system, including international treaties and institutions (Curran, 4). Trump announced in his inauguration speech in January 2017 that the United States will "become an example that everyone can follow." However, this example should start with a focus on internal affairs.

This focus on national interests , Coupled with his rejection of the international system, prompted many political analysts to treat Trump as an isolationist (Brinkley). In fact, Trump announced through harsh criticism of the legacy of Obama-Clinton interventionist foreign policy Ended humanitarian intervention. He also expressed his rejection of George W. Bush’s liberal hegemony. Tony Smith described Trump as the “most anti-liberal” the US has seen since 1940 Internationalist President" (quoted from Paterson). On the other hand, Ted Galen Carpenter argued, "While Trump critics have accused, Washington is still as usual Hawks and interventionism. "Therefore, Trump is not a full supporter of isolationism, nor is he an internationalist.

Whether Trump is a controversial isolationist. However, it is generally accepted that he is a realist. Trump is in In a foreign policy speech in 2016, it was announced that "American priority will be [his] the main and overriding theme of the government." He claimed that his decision would first consider "the interests of the American people and American security." In 2018, Dirk At a rally in Saskatchewan, he put forward his vision, saying:'Globalists are people who want the earth to do well. Frankly, he doesn't care about this country. You know, we can't have "" Then he declared himself a "nationalist". In theory, Trump’s approach is excellent Islamists because it prioritizes the national interests of the United States, regardless of whether it is for humanitarian or moral considerations.

Trump will not miss any opportunity to express his opposition to multilateralism. First, he described Obama’s multilateral foreign policy as a complete failure. Second, he believes that the international system is a responsibility and a threat to US national interests. Finally, in the first few months of his presidency, he realized that one of his campaign promises was to withdraw from different international organizations and treaties, so this position was translated into action. Therefore, it is safe to classify his approach as unilateralist.

Trump's impulsive style as president is the most controversial feature of his presidency. James B. Stewart described his style as a businessman as "impetuous, impolite, and sometimes immature." This is no different from his behavior in the White House. In fact, according to multiple accounts, White House officials are often shocked by his irregular behavior. In 2018, Bob Woodward published "Fear: Trump at the White House" . This book is based on hundreds of hours of interviews with members of the Trump administration. It portrays the president as an impulsive decision-maker and a chaotic picture that Woodward claims is equivalent to the "neurasthenia" of the executive branch.

There are big problems with Trump's language and speech. In fact, his informal style, simple language and repeated insults endowed his style with undisputed uniqueness. The President is also known for "alternative facts" and a unique understanding of events. According to a five-day analysis conducted by Politico Trump made a fallacy every 3 minutes. Therefore, Trump's words are not far from his character, mainly manifested in spontaneity, unpredictability and informality, which increases his ambiguity on foreign policy attitudes. Obviously suitable for any classic genre mentioned earlier. Trump has gone his own way when implementing foreign policy. Washington's withdrawal from international treaties and agreements makes the fundamental inconsistency obvious. Not surprisingly, Europeans are increasingly showing public resentment. The weakening of trust may have far-reaching geopolitical implications. Similarly, under the leadership of the Trump administration, Sino-US relations have been unstable. In fact, Trump's chaotic and aggressive foreign policy toward China makes it impossible to analyze his foreign policy methods using traditional diplomatic methods. Again, Trump's "national security" commitment sounds dull and becomes a watershed in US-Iranian relations. That is to say, he gave up the nuclear agreement, which reveals his unilateral position. This erroneous assumption may undermine US influence in the region and lead to the spread of new crises.

The Trump administration has no clear foreign policy model. In fact, because the government’s decision seemed wrong, thoughtful and incorrect, the president’s approach seemed impulsive, impromptu, with no clear purpose and value. Since Trump’s election, Trump’s actions have proved the attitude that many observers have long accused him of — militant, imprudent, chaotic and grumpy. Trump seems to run counter to conventional foreign policy. His move is unbelievable. He sometimes seeks to withdraw from the world, while other times it seems that he has enough power to dominate the world and use the power of the United States. Therefore, it is difficult to distinguish Trump's flawed character from the policy itself.

Described as intellectually lazy and self-obsessed, Trump is not interested in complex theories and ideas. As a businessman, his foreign policy approach seems purely transaction-oriented. This has become apparent through his efforts to perseverely impose his will on members of the government. Trump surrounded himself with compassionate loyalty, often too weak to resist him. Therefore, his vague vision adds more confusion and unpredictability at the core of his foreign policy.

Trump’s narcissism is reflected in the way he performs the president’s mission. In fact, narcissists are "an extremely self-centered person, [person] with exaggerated self-importance, characterized by excessive admiration or obsession with himself" (Lancer). In other words, narcissism is a contentious struggle for people to admire bluffs or self-esteem that overestimates their own image. The attributes of narcissism may expand to include boastfulness and arrogance. In short, Trump’s vanity and arrogance are not only reflected in the way he executes his foreign policy agenda, but also in the way he reports on the foreign policy agenda, thus strengthening people’s belief that Trump His narcissistic mood is affecting his foreign policy approach.

The most obvious feature of Trump is his anti-intellectualism and populist tendencies. A member of Trump’s 2016 campaign staff shared this view. He found that

Trump would not or might not even read, so he found that there was a problem with the coherent speech and quickly reduced it to do. , Repeated or mean criticism; Twitter is the method of speech he chose because it matches the spastic impulses that push him (Wolf).

This leads to Trump's narcissism and irrationality. Compared with his lack of learning, it is a drop in the ocean. Therefore, he may not be enough to lead the country and pose a threat to the country.

Trump’s unpredictability and irrationality can be explained by his contradictory statements. He promised to put "US priority" first, but then he continued to spend US taxpayers' money bombing Syria. He publicly expressed his admiration for the Russian president, but continued to impose strict sanctions on Russia. In a year's time, his unpredictability was also conveyed through two contradictory statements. First, in Trump’s April 2016 presidential campaign, he emphasized the vitality of diplomacy: "Unlike other presidential candidates, war and aggression are not my instincts. Without diplomatic means, foreign policy would not exist." (Trump). A year later, he threatened that North Korea "better stop posing a threat to the United States." They will face fire and unprecedented anger" (Trump), which has fundamentally changed his position in a year.

As a business-oriented president, Trump’s approach on the international stage This included economic pressure through tariffs or sanctions to stabilize his competitors. The case of the Iranian nuclear agreement revealed this method of operation. The US president tried to undermine the good functioning of the government by destabilizing the economy. Lampe threatened to impose “the highest level of economic sanctions on Iran” (Cherkay) and prevented any European company from doing business in Iran, thereby giving the future of the Iranian market a firm grasp. Indeed, this is how businessmen pass potential The favorable market is divided into other competitors, and economically rewards cooperative customers and sanctions the consequences to arrange potential favorable markets. Trump’s style of constantly seeking better transactions stems from his real estate background, which has affected his ability to make foreign affairs. A transactional and competitive approach.

Uncertainty in Trump’s world

The rationale for this article stems from attempts to classify Trump’s transactions into one of the classical schools of foreign policy methods. The findings may be It shows that the Trump administration’s foreign policy is different from traditional methods, from isolationism to internationalism, from realism to idealism, from unilateralism to multilateralism. Trump’s theoretical isolationism is different from his actual interventionism Conflict, best known as Trump’s World of Uncertainty .

Trump had declared the end of humanitarian intervention. President Donald Trump suddenly decided on October 23, 2019 The US forces withdrew from Syria and fought against Islamic State terrorists.

Let others fight for this blood-stained sand… The plan is to get rid of the endless war and bring our soldiers home instead of becoming the world Police officer.

This statement may declare the beginning of the end of the universal mission of the United States. In fact, Trumpism’s commitment to “make America great again” may undermine the link with the American hegemonic tradition. Since the interventionist intervention, The reunification of isolation and the lack of specific policy patterns in general reunification have raised many questions and raised the possibility of post-exceptionist foreign policy.

Nonetheless, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine have been elected countries since Trump’s election Since the head of state, Turkey, China and North Korea have been under their crosshairs. Trump seems to make more enemies every day. His political mistakes, coupled with his poor diplomacy and inaccurate speaking skills, have caused Transnational conflict ends with tension. The boastful isolationists have been expanding the list of American enemies, and their ambiguous agenda can best be described as another element of Trump’s uncertain world.

Classical parties come to countless American presidents It’s important to say that he took office after the indoctrination of American interventionism in World War II. However, it turns out that Trump’s foreign policy Policy methods are often (and often are) incoherent, making the future of US diplomacy obscure and unpredictable. On the one hand, this may herald a new departure from the post-exceptionist American foreign policy doctrine, which is impulsive, practical, unpredictable but realistic, confusing but pragmatic. Trumpism may thrive as a unique, atypical form of managing international affairs, which tends to adopt a more isolationist and unilateral approach, emphasizing soft power and through economic rewards and sanctions It is not a military deployment to reduce transactions.

On the other hand, this may mean that American dominance in world affairs will end, and the level of power will be transferred from the United States to emerging powers such as China. Trump’s negative motivations for relative to ’s international arena and his condemnation of global affairs may end the supranational dominance of the United States. The decline of Pax-Americana may lead to the collapse of the current world order and the shift to a new order, while the international influence of the United States is weakening. The Trump administration’s foreign policy approach may lead to a decline in the US’s global dominance, which is a potential result of political and economic incompetence.


hopes to break this highly complex and ambiguous foreign policy by two folds. First, Trump’s contradictory and ambiguous foreign policies have proposed a new Uncertain Trump Theory which is chaotic but pragmatic, impulsive but practical, unpredictable but realistic. Second, because of Trump’s indifference to international affairs, this atypical meaning may lead to the decline of American Indians. Zakaria supports this view, and he predicts that the US's global dominance will relatively decrease in the near future. His "post-American world" argument raised the possibility of changing the hierarchy of global powers and changing the current world order.

Trump's personality matches his foreign policy, and it also highlights the close connection between the two. The President’s arrogant narcissism, narcissism, anti-intellectualism, populism, bellicoseness, unpredictability and transactional thinking are all reflected in the way he handles foreign affairs. The rigorous review of Trump's personality consolidates that US foreign policy is a replica of Donald Trump's personality.


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