Miles Corak: No one needs the data we need most. It can tell us how much damage the economy has suffered, or how long it lasts? Economics, Graduate Center, City University of New York. You can follow him @MilesCorak .
Just a few weeks ago, a bundle of tightly packed RNA floated on the sea, and a drop of air pushed the $ 2 trillion economy on the cliff.
On Thursday morning, Statistics Canada released the first comprehensive assessment of the economic impact, recording the total number of jobs and unemployment in March, and the number of employees fell by more than 1 million.
Last week, reporters urged for clear information about expected COVID19 cases and deaths, core decision-making data, and clear information about each right. Canadian.
The federal government is unwilling to publish a health forecast, but because the statisticians in Ottawa pressed the release button, they did not hesitate, without warnings and concerns about accuracy. Statistics Canada reported that there has been an unprecedented collapse in employment and that the number of unemployed has also increased significantly.
Reading: Coronavirus has plunged the Canadian economy into the abyss
However, even for a survey, we should treat these numbers as temporary data. It must be done reliably every month. Official statistics cannot keep up with the speed of events we are experiencing now.
This morning ’s data only provides snapshots captured early at a certain point in time, not a continuous record of what happened and what is happening now. It does not matter
The number of jobs and unemployment refers to a A specific week, from Sunday, March 15 to Saturday, March 21. Approximately 55,000 Canadian families were surveyed and asked only about their situation during this particular week. The result is a one-week picture, just a frame from a movie that has been showing for more than a month.
Similar US data released last Friday was even anchored in early March, leading observers to clearly warn that the rise in unemployment, even the highest record since 1975, underestimated the economic losses of COVID19.
The timing of Canadian data is better, but they only reflect the initial impact of COVID19, and within a week of international travel is restricted, the severity of the situation begins to come, but many schools are closed and unnecessary work is closed in most provinces. prior to.
The employment situation is definitely deteriorating, but it may deteriorate even more during this period. Two weeks after asking questions from Statistics Canada.
According to reports, on March 20, half a million Canadians applied for employment insurance in the first four days, but as of a month, the cumulative total number of employment insurance applicants has exceeded 2 million, which has now greatly increased .
Reading: The stupid hope during the COVID-19 pandemic
Statistics Canada defines the unemployment rate based on the unemployment rate. Canadians ’behavior is: are they looking for a job, are they waiting to start work, or are they laying off temporarily And expect to return to work in the near future?
So whether you collect employment insurance is another matter entirely, but this time, almost all new claimants must be classified as unemployed, most of whom are considered temporary dismissals.
On this basis alone, the number of unemployed will surge. But Statistics Canada's situation is much better, and it is always stuck in the recruitment freeze before the recession, so with good luck, the number of unemployed people is even greater.
In fact, the number of unemployed people jumped to 500,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.6% in February to 7.8%. The economy is falling into a severe corona coma, losing all employment growth since November 2016, as the number of Canadians working has decreased by 1 million.
But since the second week of March, many transactions have taken place, and the current unemployment rate may be even higher, perhaps close to 15%, that is, one-seventh of Canadians.
This is not a beautiful picture, we do n’t need Statistics Canada to tell us that. The statisticians tell us that these data are still facts and will focus our imagination on the economic consequences of this health crisis.
However, the accurate number is that what Canadians really need to know is when we can stand up and dust ourselves
This morning, Statistics Canada did not tell us how long this economic disaster will last.
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