338 Canada: Early BC seat protrusions marginally edge NDP

Philippe J. Fournier: The 338Canada model has B.C. In all simulations, NDP beats 70% of the number of Liberal seats. But this is still a game for anyone.

Although the media ’s attention is completely focused on the current COVID-19 pandemic that is currently spreading globally, and rightly, many people, including regulars in this column, may want to get rid of this anxiety-causing situation. a couple of hours. Video games, movies, TV series, books and magazines are all great ways to entertain ideas and temporarily bring your brain to a quieter place.

Useful things. It's up to you.

My university has been closed and the course has been suspended for two weeks, but I suspect that the forced break will last longer. The exponential curve can sometimes be confusing for beginners, but closing schools early in the early stages of a pandemic may significantly reduce the spread of the virus (and sadly, human counts).

Therefore, without more exam marks and classroom instruction, I decided to delve into a project originally planned for next summer: the 42nd British Columbia Election, which is tentatively scheduled to run no later than the fall of 2021. However, given the precarious state of BC as far as the legislature is concerned (the New Democratic Party of BC and the Liberal Party of BC currently occupy 42 seats in the 87-seat legislature), Prime Minister John Hogan may come before that Established and lose confidence vote (although given the current odds that the 2020 spring election is unlikely)

Earlier this week, the Angus Reid Institute released its latest 5,000 Respondents also had a survey report that included voting intentions in several provinces, including British Columbia, Canada.

Here are the figures from Angus Reid, BC:

John Horgan ’s National Democratic Party starts with 36 Percent approval ratings are leading the field and 5 points ahead of British Columbia. Liberals account for 31%. According to the poll of the British Columbia Green Party, the number has soared to 21%, which is 4% higher than the 2017 election result of 17%.

Although there is little data on voting intentions for the past year (see the list of British Columbia polls on this page), today we are providing a preliminary projection page for 338Canada for British Columbia. Vote more in the province. See the method here.

Using past election results and polls, the following is a general vote forecast for March 15, 2020:

On the chart above, the numbers represent the vote predictions The weighted average of the color bars represents the 95% confidence interval. Since we have little data to process, these numbers remain highly uncertain. NDP leads, with an average of only 40%. Liberals under the leadership of leader Andrew Wilkinson BC followed closely behind with a 37% advantage. The BC Green Party ranks third with a 20% approval rating.

Using currently available data, this is the provincial seat forecast calculated from the 338 Canadian election model:

At present, the average Democratic Party seat forecast is With 46 seats, the Liberal Party has 38 seats. Note, however, how much the confidence intervals of the two major parties overlap in the above chart. With more votes, the scope of these uncertainties should be reduced if the data are consistent.

Furthermore, we should keep in mind that the majority of seats in the British Columbia Legislative Assembly is 44 (in 2017, the ruling BC Liberal Party won 43 seats, one less than the majority). The predictions above do give the New Democrats a bit of an advantage, but I have no confidence in the hypothetical outcome of elections with such numbers. In other words, as in 2017, every situation is possible at this time.

The following is an overview of the region:

  • In the Greater Vancouver area, the New Democrats maintain a double-digit lead in the Liberal Party, currently favored by the Liberal Party. Seven of the Liberal Party have 19 seats. See the predictions for the Greater Vancouver area here;
  • Just outside Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Langley, Chiliwak and Abbotsford are all favored by liberals. The New Democrats will hold most of their current activities in Surrey;
  • On Vancouver Island and the Pacific Coast, the New Democrats will lead 12 of the region's 16 electoral districts. If the BC Green Party wants to expand the success of the last election, it should focus most of its resources in the area.
  • In the Okanagan / Rockies, the Liberal Party is currently expected to be the most popular in 11 of the region's 13 regions, especially Kelowna and Kamloops. In most regions, the Liberal Party Marked "safe" or "possible";
  • Finally, the Liberal Party dominates northern BC

These 338 Canadian models conducted 50,000 general election simulations and made NDP 70% of all simulations Won the most seats (see chart below).

British Columbia won a quarter of the mock contest. Liberals.

The remaining 5% of the Kuomintang and Liberal seats are tied, which means that the Green Party can play the role of king maker again.

The next provincial election in British Columbia may have a significant impact on the country, and we will closely monitor British Columbia's campaign to see if Canada's only current New Democratic government will take office next year.

A survey of 87 electors in British Columbia visited the 338Canada British Columbia page area forecast. Dear reader, please be safe there.

More information about 338 Canada:

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